The national mood is souring.
Election 2025 Recap & Takeaways
This week’s election brought a mix of surprises and expected outcomes. Here are five key takeaways shaping the outlook for 2026. We will continue tracking emerging candidates and issues ahead of the next election cycle. Please let us know if there are specific races or topics you would like us to follow.
1. The national mood is souring.
With the shutdown of the federal government the longest in history, and with inflationary impacts on ‘bread and butter’ goods that families consume on a daily basis, the national mood is shifting and not in a positive direction. In exit polls in the major races in Virginia, New Jersey and New York City, voters cited the economy as their top concern. People are hurting and they are going to start putting the squeeze on elected officials and demand relief.
2. Local results gave us some change in prominent roles.
In the most prominent race of the election locally, incumbent Dayton Mayor Jeff Mims lost to challenger Shenise Turner-Sloss. This is a significant shift to the left and will very likely result in changes in city administration. The election results also put into question the direction of public safety and economic development investment in downtown Dayton. The Dayton city commission also got an infusion of youth with the election of Darius Beckham. Elsewhere in the Miami Valley, Bryan Suddith was elected as the new mayor of Kettering, and Ryan Farmer was elected as the new mayor of Clayton.
A newer generation of leaders is taking the helm in roles across the region as establishment Democratic figures such as Mims and former party chairman Dennis Lieberman (of Clayton) lost their races. This is a theme that is sure to carry through 2026 locally and nationally.
3. Unhappy about property tax rates, voters continue to vote for taxes.
In Montgomery County, the Human Services Levy (B) won passage with about 69% of the vote. In 2021, the Human Services Levy (A) passed with nearly 75% of the vote. Historically, these county-wide levies have won broad support. While this is significant slippage, the margin is still a significant victory for public welfare funds paid for by voluntary property taxes.
In Dayton, a 1-mil levy passed for the “construction and maintenance” of a public hospital. The amount of funds to be collected over the 10-year life of the levy do not come2025 Election Recap, close to any amount needed to build a new hospital, or even operate one, so it is unclear at this time how the funds will be used.
Statewide, there were 108 school levies on the ballot, including both property taxes and income taxes, 12 of which showed up on ballots in the Miami Valley. Voters continue to be unhappy with property tax rates; however, on Tuesday, about two-thirds of the measures passed statewide, with voters adding to their own unhappiness.
In response to this discontent, last month, the Ohio House of Representatives passed legislation to limit and reform property tax increases and other legislation is under consideration in both legislative chambers. 2026 will likely see substantial property tax reform, which could lead to the proliferation of local income tax measures to make up funding gaps for schools and cities.
4. The canary in the coal mine is for the Democratic Party, not the nation.
Democrats won the top spots in the three most prominent races of the election cycle, with wins in the Virginia and New Jersey governors’ races and the mayor of New York City. The media are claiming these are a referendum on and repudiation of President Trump and his policies. The President undoubtedly had some impact on the elections, but not to the degree as some would have you believe.
While the wins on Tuesday are a shot in the arm for Democrats, they are not overly indicative of things to come in the 2026 election cycle. They are, however, indicators of the Democratic Party’s shift, particularly with the NYC win. This shift even manifested itself in the Dayton mayor’s race. The races to watch in 2026 will be the Democratic primaries to see how much ground the Progressives and activists will gain in shifting the party to the left.
5. Redistricting is not over.
California’s Proposition 50 passed overwhelmingly, temporarily suspending the state’s independent redistricting commission’s congressional maps and allowing the state legislature to adopt new maps for the 2026 mid-term elections, which will presumably give the Democrats an advantage in as many as five districts currently represented by Republicans. Republicans have adopted similar measures in red states throughout the country. These changes are to adjust districts to advantage the dominant parties of the respective states. Ohio’s congressional maps have also been re-drawn, potentially netting Republicans additional seats.
This tit for tat campaign to gain an advantage in the 2026 U.S. House races is not over, and it is likely that it will not stop with the redrawing of congressional maps. With the gauntlet being thrown, the next lap in this race will likely be the redrawing of state legislative maps in states before next year’s election.
